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Store or sell the grain: break-even point

See whether it is worth storing the grain, and up to what future price storage pays off, considering interest, storage and shrinkage.

Pre-sizing and estimating tool: the results do not replace a design, calculation, or report signed by a qualified professional, nor verification against the applicable standards.

Preliminary estimateRevision 12/11/2026
Price and term
Period costs

Future price is an expectation, not a guaranteed forecast. Use a market or consultant reference.

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—Result of storing
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Result breakdown

How much each item adds or subtracts from the result per bag.

Tap the chart to see the values.

Result by storage time

Result per bag if the sale happens between 1 and 12 months, with the future price you entered; the dot is your term.

Tap the chart to see the values.

What if the data changes?

Drag the controls to simulate data different from what you entered (from 30% less to 30% more) and watch the result change instantly.

Tap the chart to see the values.

Result per bag by price and term

Result per bag, in reais, for future prices from 0% to 20% above today's price and different storage terms.

Step by step with your numbers

The calculation done in steps, with the values you entered.

    The calculation memo gathers this page's inputs, results, equations, assumptions, and references, with fields for project, responsible person, and review. The full report also includes the charts and interpretations, in color. In the print window, choose Save as PDF.

    How to use

    Enter today's bag price, the price you expect on the sale date, the storage time, the monthly storage cost, the monthly cost of capital, and the period's weight loss. The calculator shows the result per bag and the minimum future price to break even.

    Worked example

    Soybean at R$ 120/bag today, R$ 130/bag in 4 months, storage at R$ 1.50/bag/month, interest of 1% per month and shrinkage of 0.5%.

    Variation = 10.00. Storage = 1.50 × 4 = 6.00. Interest = 120 × 1% × 4 = 4.80. Shrinkage = 130 × 0.5% = 0.65. Result = 10 − 6 − 4.80 − 0.65 = −R$ 1.45/sc, not worth it.

    Minimum price = (120 × 1.04 + 6) ÷ 0.995 = R$ 131.46/sc.

    Common mistakes

    • Forgetting interest: the money tied up in the bag could be earning returns elsewhere.
    • Using the price from one market and the storage from another, without the freight between them.

    Method, assumptions, and references

    Equations used

    Result (R$/bag) = (future price − price today) − storage × months − price today × interest × months − future price × breakage
    Minimum future price (R$/bag) = (price today × (1 + interest × months) + storage × months) ÷ (1 − breakage)

    Assumptions and limits

    • Simple interest on the grain value; the cost of capital is what you give up by not earning on the sale money.
    • Fixed future price, with no basis change, freight or selling cost.
    • Breakage as a fraction of the stored grain, valued at the future price.

    Standards and technical documents

    • Conab. Logistics bulletins and yearbooks with storage data (periodic publications; see the latest edition).

    Frequently asked questions

    Why must the future price be higher than the current price?

    Because storing costs money: the storage itself, the interest on idle money, and grain breakage. The future price must cover all of this for you to come out ahead.

    How do I know the future price?

    Use a market reference (exchange or futures quote for your local market) or a projection from your consultant. The calculator does not forecast prices.

    Is it worth storing on the farm or in a warehouse?

    Compare the storage cost per bag of each option, including freight to the warehouse. The calculator uses a single value, which you fill in with the cost of each case.

    Is this a sales recommendation?

    No. It is a comparison calculation. The decision to sell depends on your cash position, price risk, and commercial strategy.